Reactions to the Oscars

Predictions

Okay, so to start, I guess I better get the embarrassing part out of the way. For the second straight year, I had my worst year ever predicting the Oscars. Normally, I am somewhere around 20/24, but last year I did horribly and only got 17/24. This year was even worse, with a miserable 15/24. I missed Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Art Direction, Sound Editing, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short and Foreign Language Film. I assume that if you wanted to know the winners, you already found them, so I’m not going to waste the space.

In fairness to me I did think that Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Sound Editing, Live Action Short and Animated Short were tight races that could go one of two ways – and I just guessed the wrong way. In predicting Oscars, you have to be lucky to be good, and this year, I was not lucky. I did also have a feeling that The Secret of Their Eyes would pull off the upset in Foreign Language Film, just like Departures did last year, but I chickened out on actually calling it. Again, you got to be brave to be good, and on that one, I wasn’t. The win for Precious in Adapted Screenplay and Music by Prudence in Documentary Short were complete stunners to me though, and I do not feel bad about my predictions in those categories. If you picked either one of them, I have a feeling it was more blind luck than anything else.

So, I will issue a warning for next year – stick with me when I make the nomination predictions – I am great at those – but then go to someone else for the winners. I am a long way removed from the great years I had from 1999-2007 where I did great (I am still proud of that fact that I am the only one I know who picked Adrian Brody to win in 2002 – and I have the videotape to prove it!).

The Show

I thought Neil Patrick Harris’ opening musical number was okay. You knew with Adam Shankman producing, they would have a big musical number, and unless it involved the banjo, then the hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin wouldn’t be involved. Harris is a natural entertainer, and he delivered the song with gusto – but I thought the song was kind of lame – the jokes fell flat, and the lyrics were uninspired. All in all, Harris sold it well, but was undone by the material he had.

Moving onto the hosts, I think Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin actually did quite well together. I wouldn’t go as far as to say I think they should come back year after year, but I do think that the two hosts thing worked quite well. It allowed each of them to have someone to play off of, mainly having Baldwin as the straight man to Martin’s one liners. The opening monologue was amusing and enjoyable, and didn’t go on too long, and they came back throughout the show and did good little bits. They were very good together, and if they end up being brought back again, I wouldn’t be upset. Then again, I though Hugh Jackman and Jon Stewart also did great jobs – so what do I know.

The John Hughes tribute confused me. I have nothing against the man, who was obviously loved by the people who were delivering the tribute, but what exactly was it then merited Hughes getting a tribute in the first place? Especially when you consider in the past few years true legends like Paul Newman, Marlon Brando and Robert Altman only got shout outs in the in memoriam package? Was it that he was only 59 when he died? I don’t know, but it seems kind of odd to devote that much time to a director who only made a handful of films that people actually still watch (seriously, other than The Breakfast Club, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and Planes, Trains and Automobiles, how often does anyone watch his other films? Werid Science???? Come on!). And while we’re speaking of this, didn’t Judd Nelson look like some crazy guy who would normally see ranting on the subway that they just slapped a tuxedo on? Considering that Roger Corman and Lauren Bacall – two people who have had a WAY bigger impact on American movies than Hughes had won honorary Oscars, and were shunted aside in about 30 seconds, this seemed especially egregious.

Speaking on the In Memoriam package, it was better than last year, when you couldn’t tell who they were remembering because the director just zoomed on in on the big screen in the auditorium. The first two people were like that, before they switched over, and we got a look at the people and their work. So no complaints there.

My least favorite part of the show was the idiotic interpretative dances to the score nominees. I thought the Academy wisely put an end that nearly a decade ago, and it was an unwelcome return. Of course, with Adam “So You Think You Can Dance” Shakman at the helm, we knew we’d get a dance number, but is it too much to ask that the dance actually match the music? No matter how quiet or melancholy the scores were, we had jackasses flipping all around the stage. And what the hell was that guy doing the robot for during the Up score? Am I wrong in thinking that perhaps the dances should have reflected the movies in some way? News flash, Wall-E was Pixar’s movie last year about a robot. Up was about an old guy travelling to South America. Idiots.

Most of the presenters did an okay job. Nothing too memorable – either positively or negatively to report on them. I know Ben Stiller’s Avatar spoof has caught some slack today, but I found it to be enjoyable and funny. The rest, I don’t have much of an opinion on.

This year, unlike last year, I did enjoy the five people coming out to speak about the nominees for the lead acting categories. I liked how they didn’t do it for all four categories, just the leads, and that they selected people who actually had a connection to the nominees, just simply past winners. Not all the tributes were great, but I did enjoy Colin Farrell speaking about Jeremy Renner, Tim Robbins speaking about Morgan Freeman and Oprah talking about Gaborey Sidibie. The best though, was by far Stanley Tucci talking about Meryl Streep. All in all, I liked it.

Overall, I don’t think I would ask the producers of this show back. What went right was the things that go right every year. What went wrong – the musical numbers, the Hughes tribute, and the Horror Clipfest (which was a big WTF moment for me, especially since they said it had 37 years since The Exorcist won two Oscars, and then went on to have The Silence of the Lambs – which won 5 Oscars in 1991 in the fest) were clearly on their shoulders.

The Speeches

In terms of the acting winners, Christophe Waltz delivered his best speech of the year. That isn’t saying much as normally, he was droned on endlessly without really saying anything. But he managed to thank a lot of people without just giving a laundry list of names, so that’s something. Mo’Nique’s was emotional, and from the heart, and did well. Jeff Bridges seemed to not want to get off the stage, and also seemed to have nothing prepared, as he just sat up there calling everyone man. But hey, he’s earned his moment – 5 nominations over a 40 year span, and his first win. But was it just me, or did it look like Bridges was preparing for a Colonel Sanders biopic with that facial hair? Sandra Bullock knew she was going to win, and so he had a speech prepared, and delivered it well. It was funny and emotional, and helped a little to wash the bad taste out of my mouth by the fact that her average performance won in the first place.

As for the rest of the speeches, I though Kathryn Bigelow was gracious in her director win, not laying it on heavy at all that a woman finally won the award. The best picture speech wasn’t quite as good. Gregory Fletcher was obviously stunned by winning for his Precious screenplay, and his speech was an emotional highlight. I thought the producer of Music by Prudence was a dick interrupting her director with a tired old joke that would be called sexist if a man said it about a woman. The rest were fine.

Recap

So now it is time to put Oscar to bed for another year. Or, more realistically, for about 6 months. The Toronto Film Festival will kick off the Oscar season in early September, which starts 3 months of idle speculation, following by two months of precursors, which ends with the Oscar Nominations, then another month of speculation over who will win. This season seemed to drag on a little for me, probably because it was slightly longer than in recent years (because of the Olympics). But I’ll be back next year. I don’t take the Oscar that seriously, but I have a lot of fun with them every year.

Oscars: Who Will Win and Who Should Win Recap

What Will Win Summary
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Best Original Screenplay: Inglorious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Documentary (Feature): The Cove
Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon - Germany
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd
Best Costume Design: Bright Star
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Music (Original Score): Up – Michael Giacchino
Best Music (Original Song): Crazy Heart – The Weary Kind
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Documentary (Short Subject): China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Short Film (Animated): A Matter of Loaf and Death
Short Film (Live Action): The Door

What Should Win Summary
Best Picture: Inglorious Basterds
Best Director: Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Best Actor: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christophe Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Adapted Screenplay: In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong/Simon Blackwell/Armando Iannucci/Tony Roche
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Documentary (Feature): The Cove
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet - France
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Cinematography: The White Ribbon – Christain Berger
Best Costume Design: Bright Star
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Music (Original Score): Up – Michael Giacchino
Best Music (Original Song): Crazy Heart – The Weary Kind
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Documentary (Short Subject): The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant
Short Film (Animated): Logorama
Short Film (Live Action): Miracle Fish

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

So finally, we reach the big one. The best picture race. With the new Preferential voting system, no one really knows how it is going to play out. Prior to this year, they used a regular system - like they still do for every other category - where you vote for your favorite. With 10 nominees this year, they changed it up. Now, you rank all 10 films for 1-10 on your ballot. In order to win a film need 50% + 1 of the vote. They essentially make 10 piles - one for each nominee - and drop the smallest pile out each round, and redistribute those votes by the next highest film still in contention - until a film reaches that 50% + 1 mark. It requires a lot more consensus - and a little less passion (the criticism that the system has received). Anyway, it should be interesting.

Avatar
Odds: 4-1
For It: It is now the BIGGEST movie of all time, and Oscar loves a success story. The reviews were great, and audiences cannot get enough of it. The Globe win was a major precursor, and makes this one of the frontrunners. It also is tied for the most nominations of any film this year, which is usually a good sign.
Against It: Every time a movie gets this successful, the boo birds come out in full force, and there is definitely a strong anti-Avatar group out there. The new preferential ballot system for best picture could easily hurt a film like this, which is divisive. There will be some who cannot bring themselves to vote for a movie about blue people.

The Blind Side
Odds: 8-1
For It: Oscar loves a feel good, underdog story and The Blind Side is certainly that. A big star turn by Sandra Bullock, who will likely walk away with the Best Actress Oscar helps a lot. If Hollywood wants to reach out to the heartland of America, who they are often accused of ignoring, this is the one they will go for – as this was a HUGE hit there. The preferential ballot system helps movies that are liked by many, even if they are loved by only a small group.
Against It: Easily the least critically acclaimed of the 10 nominees, and aside from Best Picture, it only received one other nomination, meaning that aside from actors, I’m not sure how much support this will draw.

District 9
Odds: 15-1
For It: For those who love science fiction, and would want to see a film in the genre win this award, but cannot stand Avatar, this is the horse to back. The film came out of nowhere to become one of the biggest hits – with audiences and critics this year.
Against It: Really though, I can’t imagine too many Academy voters putting this very high on their list of 10. It got four nominations, which is good, but nowhere near the top. Without a director or an actor in play, this is a tough get.

An Education
Odds: 10-1
For It: Women absolutely seem to love this film, and they make up a sizable amount of the Oscar voters – among actors anyway. A critical favorite, talked about all year. It did only receive three nominations, but that can easily be explained by the fact that the directors are male centric, and Sarsgaard and Molina split the supporting actor vote.
Against It: It started out strong, but has certainly faded down the stretch as it limped across the finish line. In order for this to truly win this one, Mulligan has to pull off an upset in actress, and Hornby has to win adapted screenplay – something I don’t see happening. The charges of anti-Semitism just don’t seem to be going away.

The Hurt Locker
Odds: 3-1
For It: The critics have backed it all year long, and with the DGA and PGA wins under its belt, it certainly has the most important precursors on its side. A film that few seem to have anything bad to say about – meaning that even if it doesn’t win on the number 1 votes, the preferential voting system could easily shoot this one up the ladder. Oscar has gone a little edgier in the past few years, and no one is going to feel bad about giving this the Oscar in the future.
Against It: It only made $13 million at the box office, making it the third lowest grossing Best Picture nominee of the decade (the two behind it? An Education and A Serious Man) and well behind Crash, who at $55 million was the lowest grossing best picture winner in years. Box office isn’t the only concern that the Academy takes into consideration, but it does help.

Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 6-1
For It: The supporters of the film love it, and I have a hard time imagining they won’t be putting it at number one on their ballots. If they want a big audience hit that isn’t animated or have blue people, aliens or Sandra Bullock in it, Inglorious Basterds is the film to vote for. It has been chugging along all Oscar season, and although it doesn’t have the precursors you normally expect for a film to win, that may not matter with the preferential voting.
Against It: The film also has quite a few vocal detractors – meaning that although I expect it to get a lot of #1 votes, it will also get a number of #10 votes, which with the preferential system could easily hurt the film. Oscar prefers more serious movies than Tarantino makes.

Precious
Odds: 6-1
For It: If Oscar voters went with a story of poverty in India last year, why can’t they go with one set in America this year? The film has survived its backlash, and comes into the Oscars with 6 nominations a good total. Those who like the film, really like the film, so I imagine there will be quite a few #1 votes.
Against It: The film also has detractors though – quite a few and quite vocal about it as well – meaning that it could easily be hurt by the preferential system this year. It started out very strong this year, but aside from Mo’Nique, it has faded down the stretch.

A Serious Man
Odds: 20-1
For It: The Coen’s have a strong group of very avid fans who adore everything they do (I know, I’m one of them). A Serious Man is unlike anything else nominated this year.
Against It: The film has very weak box office – not even $10 million. Plus, it only got one other nomination (Original Screenplay). Plus it is perhaps the Coen’s most divisive film to date – and the Coens have never exactly enjoyed huge critical consensus (yes, some even dislike Fargo and No Country for Old Men). They got their awards just two years ago – it’s someone else’s turn this year.

Up
Odds: 7-1
For It: Up is going to be a big beneficiary of the preferential ballot system. I mean, who didn’t love the film? I don’t expect it to get as many #1 votes as many of the other frontrunners, but if it loads up on #2s, #3 and #4s (if it goes that far which I think it could), Up could pull off a shocking upset on Oscar night.
Against It: I just don’t see it happening. The Academy has shown a disdain for animated films in the top categories for its entire 80+ year run. I don’t see that changing this year.

Up in the Air
Odds: 5-1
For It: An intelligent comedy/drama that everyone seems to really like. I don’t think it will get as many #1 votes as The Hurt Locker or Avatar, but it could easily come back strong on subsequent rounds, as it is a film that is widely liked by many.
Against It: It faded a little bit after a strong start, and the film is not really a contender to win anything other than Adapted Screenplay this year (and it will most assuredly win that one). Will that be enough to put it over the top?

Who Will Win: The preferential system makes this one the hardest to pick in years, as we really have no idea how things are going to play out. I think The Hurt Locker benefits the most from the system, and will likely be your winner – although Avatar, Up in the Air, Inglorious Basterds, Precious and Up could all make a push. Should be interesting,

Who Should Win: Since Inglorious Basterds was my favorite film of 2009, obviously I am hoping it can pull off an upset. But I will be more than happy if The Hurt Locker wins this one.

Least of the Nominees: There is nothing really wrong with The Blind Side – it is a fine inspirational sports movie as far as that goes. But it is hardly in a class with the rest of this field – as even my least favorite of the remaining films (Precious) is much better.

Oscar Predictions

The two most predictable awards of the night. I went overboard with analysis anyway.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Odds: 25-1
For Him: He is a big movie star, who has never won an acting Oscar (he won for screenplay back in 1997). He is in a feel good movie, from a legendary director (Clint Eastwood). He nails the difficult South African accent.
Against Him: Does anyone really love Invictus? The film couldn’t make it into the Best Picture lineup, even with heavy hitters like Eastwood and Freeman behind it, and 10 slots. His nomination strikes me as rather lazy of the Academy, and there is no where he’s going to get much support for the win.

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Odds: 10-1
For Him: Harrelson had a great year – completing his comeback with his performance here, not to mention Zombieland and 2012. He has been nominated before (for The People vs. Larry Flynt), but has not won. The Messenger is a small movie, but one that has struck a chord with everyone who has seen it – and he is one of the main reasons why.
Against Him: How many people actually did see it? So far, it still has under $1 million at the box office, and it doesn’t seem to being get much of an Oscar bump. While the Academy has welcomed him back into the fold after years away, it doesn’t strike me as they want to give him the award this year.

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Odds: 5-1
For Him: He is a true acting legend, who at 80 has received his first Oscar nomination – that’s right, he has never even been nominated before- and Oscar loves to make up for past slights. Oscar loves a good biopic, and playing Leo Tolstoy gives Plummer an opportunity to hit many different notes.
Against Him: In recent years, being old and never being nominated has got people like Hal Holbrook and Ruby Dee into the race, but not won it for them. It has actually been a while since they have given it to an old guy as a makeup prize – unless you count Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. His movie didn’t get very good reviews.

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Odds: 15-1
For Him: Tucci had a great year – first with his fun, sympathetic performance in the audience favorite Julie and Julia, and then as the child murdering pedophile in Peter Jackson’s The Lovely Bones. The two performances could not be more different, and they really do show off his range this year. He is a well liked actor who has never even been nominated before.
Against Him: Which means they won’t feel obligated to give him the win – that will be next time. The Lovely Bones was one of the most anticipated films of the year, but when it came out it disappointed most critics. Some feel he is too far over the top here, and should have gotten in for Julie and Julia instead. It’s just not his year.

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Odds: Even
For Him: The lone nominee from a Best Picture contender (and one that received 8 total nominations), the Academy obviously likes his film the best. They also love it when someone comes out of nowhere and delivers a remarkable, instantly iconic performance – and Waltz certainly qualifies as that as his villainous turn is the most talked about in the movie. He has been winning prizes for this since the Cannes film festival, including the two most important awards – the Globe and the SAG.
Against Him: Some don’t like the movie, and think that it trivializes the Holocaust. Also, they don’t feel a need to reward Waltz, as he is a newcomer – at least to them. Plus, since they have give this awards to villains the last two years, perhaps they want to go happier this year. His speeches this awards season have been BORING (but really, I’m reaching here).

Who Will Win: Waltz has been the frontrunner all season, winning practically everything, and I doubt that will change now.

Who Should Win: Waltz is far and away the best in this category. In fact, I’d say he gave the best performance of the year in any category.

Least of the Nominees: A tough call for me. Damon played a rather boring, generic role as well as it could have possibly been played. It’s not his fault it was so vanilla. Whereas I thought Plummer was uneven in a more challenging role. And I'll just add this as well - as much as I like Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones - he played the role perfectly - we've seen him be much better in the past.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Odds: 25-1
For Her: She has become an Oscar favorite in recent years – this being her third nomination in the past few years. Despite the fact the film got weak reviews, most people loved her performance in it. She is a sexual firecracker.
Against Her: She just won last year – and for a film and performance that got much better reviews. There are many who think that Marion Cottilard was better than Cruz in Nine, but category confusion kept her out. The movie is not that well liked, and some were underwhelmed by her big musical number. This just isn’t her year.

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Odds: 8-1
For Her: Farmiga finally broke through with the Oscars, after a few years of flirting on the outskirts of the category. Of the two Up in the Air women, she has the meaty, more adult role in the film. She gets some points for playing the type of character that mainly are written for men.
Against Her: She will split the vote with her Up in the Air co-star Kendrick. She has never really been able to break through this year and beat Mo’Nique at any of the award shows. This is a good introduction for her to the Academy – but she’ll have to wait for another year.

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Odds: 15-1
For Her: Gyllenhaal has barely missed being nominated in the past, so this nomination was a long time coming. Could Bridges have been as good as he was without a scene partner like Gyllenhaal to push him into his top game?
Against Her: Her nomination was somewhat of a surprise, and surprise nominees rarely, if ever, turn into surprise winners. She has been absent for most of the other nominations this year, and so hasn’t proved she can beat Mo’Nique. Will they really give two acting awards to a film not nominated for Best Picture? I think not. Plus, well I have yet to read anything bad about Bridges work, Gyllenhaal's character - and performance - seems to rub some the wrong way. It's just not her year.

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Odds: 10-1
For Her: She’s young, she’s pretty, she’s spunky – all things that the Academy loves to reward in this category. Her supporting role in the Twilight series has upped her profile with audiences, and her nomination here puts her near the front of the generation of young female talent out there right now.
Against Her: She will lose votes to her co-star Farmiga. She is one of the few people to actually beat Mo’Nique this year for a major award – but that was the National Board of Review and happened a long time ago, and I doubt anyone cares. The nomination will certainly help her career, but she’ll have to wait until another year to win.

Mo’Nique, Precious
Odds: Even
For Her: She has pretty much been an unstoppable force all awards season – winning every major critics award, the Globe and the SAG. The Oscars love it when someone they previously thought didn’t have acting chops proves everyone wrong. She has a larger than life role, and she rips into with a vengeance – but shows the real person underneath. This is Precious’ only real chance at a win, and they’ll want to give it something.
Against Her: Some will still dismiss her as merely a comedian who got lucky. She has been talked about so much this year that some maybe sick of her by now.

Who Will Win: Mo’Nique has been unstoppable all season long, and there is no way that the Academy is not going to follow suit.

Who Should Win: I am torn here. I loved Kendrick’s sweet innocence in Up in the Air – turning someone who I thought would be one note into a real person. But Mo’Nique is simply brilliant in her movie, and she has some emotional weight behind her performance as well.

Least of the Nominees: Without a doubt, this time it’s Penelope Cruz. She is fine in her musical number in Nine, but she spends the rest of the movie crying. How they nominated her, and not Cottilard who is the emotional heart of that movie, is beyond me.

Oscar Predictions: Lead Acting

Now, let’s move onto the categories most people like the best – the actors.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Odds: Even
For Him: A true acting legend. He received his first Oscar nomination nearly 40 years ago, and this year he received his fifth – and he still has not won. He has won pretty much every precursor that really matters, and people love him in the film. Nominations for Gyllenhaal and the song The Weary Kind show that the Academy really does like the movie.
Against Him: But do they really love the movie? I mean, it still could not break into Best Picture, even with 10 slots this year. Not being a Best Picture nominee hasn’t hurt previous winners, but that was when there were only 5 nominees. Is this really Bridges’s finest work, no matter how good he is?

George Clooney, Up in the Air
Odds: 8-1
For Him: A true movie star. No one does this type of role better than Clooney, who has transformed himself into an Academy favorite in the last few years. He is Hollywood’s poster boy for intelligent, adult movies that people actually want to see, as well as being beloved for his politics. Often times they want to give a star a lead Oscar after they won supporting. He is one of only two nominees from a Best Picture nominee.
Against Him: But the fact remains, that he does have an Oscar at home, something that Bridges – who has a much longer track record than Clooney does not have. They will undoubtedly give Clooney another Oscar at some point in his career – this just isn’t going to be that year.

Colin Firth, A Single Man
Odds: 10-1
For Him: Firth has a track record stretching back well more than a decade of giving solid performances. He has never even been nominated before this year, and people were amazed by his performance as a closeted gay man in the 1960s. For some reason, the Oscars still think its daring when a straight man plays gay,
Against Him: The film got no other nominations, meaning that while they may love Firth, they didn’t necessarily love the film itself – something that is important when you are going for the win. Because he has never been nominated before, they don’t really feel they owe him a win yet. That will be his next nomination.

Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Odds: 15-1
For Him: Freeman is beloved, and him playing Nelson Mandela is absolutely perfect casting, and something that Freeman brought off tremendously well. Oscar loves it when famous people play other famous people, and Freeman is their only chance to reward that in this category.
Against Him: Even with a big Oscar campaign, and Clint Eastwood, behind the film it still could not get into the 10 wide Best Picture nominee slate – meaning I don’t know how much they actually liked the film. I have a feeling that many checked off Freeman’s name out of laziness this year. He already has an Oscar, so there is not great need to give him another one for this movie.

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Odds: 4-1
For Him: Renner is hoping to become this year’s Adrian Brody – that largely unknown star of a movie that the Academy obviously loves who upsets his competition. He did win a few critics prizes, and people do love the movie and his performance a lot.
Against Him: Brody’s main competition was Nicholson and Day-Lewis who had four Oscars between them at the time, whereas Renner’s competition is Jeff Bridges – a beloved actor who has never won before. While it’s true when people talk about the performances in the movie, they mention Renner first, when they talk about the movie, they mention Bigelow first.

Who Will Win: I think Bridges’ time has finally come and he’ll take home the Oscar easily this year.

Who Should Win: Renner would get my vote, as he delivered the most intense performance nominated this year. Bridges should have won for The Big Lebowski.

Least of the Nominees: Don’t get me wrong, I love Morgan Freeman, and given the material he had to work with in Invictus, he delivered as good of a performance as I think was possible. Having said that, I am the only one who is tired of seeing Freeman play saints? Remember his first Oscar nominated performance, playing a viscous pimp is Street Smart? Why can’t Freeman do that again?

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Odds: 2-1
For Her: She is a big star, and has had a career year. Getting The Blind Side to over $200 million at the box office rests on her shoulders, and The Proposal did very good as well. She has won the Globe and the SAG award already, and the fact that the film slipped into the 10 wide Best Picture category helps her out tremendously.
Against Her: She has never been an Oscar actress before – not even coming close to a nomination in the past, and sometimes, they make big stars wait a little while before they give them an Oscar. Although the film did get into the Best Picture category, it has a lot of detractors as well.

Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Odds: 20-1
For Her: She is an Oscar favorite, currently on her fourth nomination. Oscar loves historical biopics, which this is, and love over the top theatrics, which she delivers in spades in this movie.
Against Her: In my mind, she is WAY too far over the top here. Plus she won an Oscar already and not that long ago. The Last Station didn’t really get very good reviews, and other than Plummer, she is the films lone nominee. It’s just not her year.

Carey Mulligan, An Education
Odds: 5-1
For Her: One of the breakout stars of the year, Mulligan carries An Education – a Best Picture nominee – on her back. She is charming and beautiful in the movie, and has already gotten roles before of her work here. She is a major star of tomorrow, and Oscar sometimes rewards that. She has won a few critics awards, and has had people talking about the performance since it premiered at Sundance last January.
Against Her: She has not really played the Oscar game this year – concentrating on her work instead of campaigning. An Education started off very strong, but has faded a little bit down the stretch, as has she losing to Bullock at both the Globes and the SAGs. Because she is so young, and so talented (and beautiful), she will undoubtedly have another shot one day.

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Odds: 10-1
For Her: Hers is the most loved film by Oscar – picking up six nominations this year. She is the title character, and despite the fact that she was a complete unknown when she was cast, she carried the film, giving a subtle, quiet, emotionally powerful performance.
Against Her: Unlike Mulligan, she seems to be more of a one off talent than a future star. Mo’Nique is winning in supporting actress, so they will not feel the need to give the film another win. I have a feeling the nomination is going to have to be enough.

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Odds: 4-1
For Her: She’s Meryl Streep! Although she has won two Oscars in the past, she hasn’t done so in more than 25 years, and on her last few nominations there have been quite a few people saying she deserves her third – after all, she has been nominated more than anybody in history. Oscar loves a biopic of famous people, and Streep plays Julia Child just about perfectly. It’s also an audience hit, which helps.
Against Her: The film didn’t get any other nominations, meaning that although they love Streep, they don’t love the movie as much. To those for whom impersonation is not enough, I doubt that they will be swayed by Streep here. And even though it has been a while, she does have two Oscars.

Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock came out of nowhere in the late going of the game, proving all the people who said it was going to Mulligan vs. Streep wrong. I suspect the steamroller season she has had recently will continue, and she’ll win.

Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan is far and away the best of the nominees this year. Sweet, innocent, naïve, yet somehow mature. It’s a brilliant performance.

Least of the Nominees: I know most of the internet people are picking on Bullock, but I would gladly take her best performance to date (which isn’t saying all that much really), over Mirren’s over the top theatrics. And although I know I will anger people, I’d probably pick her over Streep as well.

Oscar Predictions: Directors and Writers

Today, we will look at the directors and the writers. They are even more important to the success or failure of a movie than the actors – but they don’t get the recognition from the public.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Odds: 2-1
For Her: There is a real movement afoot of people who believe that it is long past time that a woman won the Best Director Oscar – something that has never happened before. Add to that, Bigelow made the most critically acclaimed film of the year, and unlike the other female nominees, she made a tough, muscular (dare I say masculine?), film in one of Oscar’s favorite genre – the war movie. The DGA award is the most important precursor, and she won it.
Against Her: The film didn’t make a lot of money – her film grossed significantly less than any of the other nominees in this category. Cameron did some truly groundbreaking work on Avatar, and because this is a pure ballot – not preferential like picture, the divisiveness of the film won’t hurt him as much here.

James Cameron, Avatar
Odds: 4-1
For Him: Oscar loves success – and Cameron is the man behind the biggest movie in history at this point. He truly did push special effects into the next generation with his film. He is the only person here whose film itself is groundbreaking. He won the Globe, which certainly helps him.
Against Him: The film is divisive, and that could hurt him. Many remember what they felt was an egotistical Oscar speech the last time he won best director for Titanic (“I’m king of the world!”). The awards are lining up behind Bigelow, and Cameron himself lent her support when in his Globes speech he commented that he thought Kathryn was going to win – and deserved to.

Lee Daniels, Precious
Odds: 10-1
For Him: Daniels deserves a lot of credit for Precious, as he took what could have been just another movie of the week for the Women’s Network, and turned it into one of the best reviewed, most loved films of the year – both with his work with the actors, and his visual style. There’s been a lot of talk about making Oscar history this year by making Bigelow the first woman to win this prize – but it should be noted that if Daniels won, he’d be the first African American.
Against Him: But is anyone really mentioning that this year, or are they all focused on Bigelow? Normally an African American being nominated here would be big news (has anyone other than John Singleton ever been nominated? I can’t think of any), but this year it simply isn’t. His film is probably the most divisive of any of the nominees, and I can see even big supporters of Precious looking somewhere else for Director. This is Daniels’ big breakthrough film as a director – and often they like to go with someone with some history behind them.

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Odds: 8-1
For Him: Reitman received his second nomination in a row (and he’s only made 3 films!) for Up in the Air. Everything else seems so serious this year, but Up in the Air has more comedic elements than the other movies. His name is well known because of his father, and they will really want to give him an Oscar.
Against Him: Which they’ll do in the adapted screenplay category. Bigelow and Cameron are far out in front right now, and Up in the Air has faded a little bit down the stretch. By giving Reitman the Oscar for writing (like they have done in the past to directors like Alexander Payne, Sofia Coppola, Paul Haggis, Quentin Tarantino – the list goes on and on) they can still reward him for his great work this year.

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 7-1
For Him: He has the biggest cast of any of the nominees, and he is the only one who had to juggle multiple storylines. His film is complex, yet exciting – no mean feat considering how much talk there is in the film. The film is made for film lovers, which presumably means Academy members.
Against Him: But, they can give him the Original screenplay Oscar and still regard him for a film they obviously loved. The film has detractors, and the violence will be off putting for some. Bigelow and Cameron are far ahead of the pack this year, and I doubt Tarantino can catch them.

Who Will Win: It really does come down to Bigelow vs. Cameron, but I think Bigelow has enough support to put her over the top for the win.

Who Should Win: Since Tarantino made my favorite film of the year, he is obviously my choice here. No complaints if Bigelow wins however.

Least of the Nominees: I just don’t think Lee Daniels is in the same league as the other directors. Yes, he made a TV movie of the week feel raw and emotional – but it’s still a TV movie of the week.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9 – Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
Odds: 15-1
For Them: They wrote one of the best reviewed films of the year, and audiences loved it to. The Academy gave this film four Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, so it is obvious that they liked the film.
Against Them: The nomination is going to have been reward enough. They are going up against three heavier hitters from the Best Picture line-up – and ones that garnered more praise for their screenplays.

An Education – Nick Hornby
Odds: 5-1
For Him: Hornby is a well respected writer, and his screenplay for An Education has been praised all year long. It takes talent to essentially turn a magazine article into a fully well rounded movie – especially when you’re a man and the protagonist is a teenage girl.
Against Him: He is more well known as a novelist than a screenwriter. An Education has faded a little bit down the stretch. Plus, the charges that the movie is anti-Semitic all stem for his screenplay.

In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong/Simon Blackwell/Armando Iannucci/Tony Roche
Odds: 20-1
For Them: They wrote one of the most quotable films of the year. Pretty much every other line is a zinger that is hilarious and smart. But they were still able to craft a movie that was intelligent about global politics.
Against Them: As the only nominee for a non Best Picture contender, it’s hard to drum up support. The fact that this the films only nomination certainly doesn’t help either. They are adapting their own TV show, so some will feel that that this is just a sitcom blown up for the big screen.

Precious – Geoffrey Fletcher
Odds: 7-1
For Him: People have talked about the movie all year long. It took talent to take Sapphire’s book – as full of idiosyncrasies as it was – and turn it into a complete motion picture. Mo’Nique did a wonderful job acting – but it all started with his lines.
Against Him: The screenplay has gone largely unnoticed this season – somewhat surprising. Everyone talks about Hornby with An Education, and Reitman with Up in the Air, but no one seems to mention this one. Strange.

Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Odds: Even
For Them: This is a real opportunity for the Academy to give Jason Reitman an Oscar – something they want to do. They all know he doesn’t stand a chance for director, so if they want to give him an Oscar, for a film that they obviously love this is their chance. They took a rather cynical book, and turned it something much, much more.
Against Them: There has been a screenwriting controversy surrounding this movie all season – as Reitman felt he should get sole credit for the work. The Academy may not want to see their annual back slapping party turn into an awkward moment.

Will Win: I really do not see how anyone is going to overtake Up in the Air – which is easily the most praised screenplay in this category this year.

Should Win: For me, In the Loop is far and away the best written movie of this bunch of nominees.

Least of the Nominees: I think most of the credit for Precious has to go to director Lee Daniels, and his cast, who turned Fletcher’s screenplay into something much deeper than it was on the page.

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal
Odds: 4-1
For Him: He wrote the most acclaimed film of the year, and the movie I think will probably win the top prize. The movie is a wonderful mixture of character development, and suspense, which made the film much deeper than many war films.
Against Him: When people talk about the film, they talk about Bigelow first, Renner second and Boal right near the bottom. It was not an easy screenplay for him to write, but he has not quite gotten enough credit this year. The fact that he is going up against Tarantino doesn’t help him.

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
Odds: 3-1
For Him: They obviously love the movie, as it got 8 nominations total. He is also nominated for director, but he has almost no chance at winning that one, so this would be a nice consolation prize. The movie is all about the writing – the different languages, the dialogue, and the intense sequences. Tarantino is one of the best screenwriters in the world.
Against Him: The movie does have some detractors, so they could go somewhere else. The Hurt Locker is riding high right now, and could carry Boal right along with it. Since Tarantino already one this Oscar for 1994’s Pulp Fiction, they may not feel the need to give him another one.

The Messenger – Oren Moverman & Allesandro Camon
Odds: 20-1
For Them: If the Academy wants to give the award to an Iraq war movie that is all about the dialogue and character development, and not intense action sequences, than The Messenger is the film to give it to.
Against Them: The film didn’t get into the best picture lineup this year – the only nominee here that didn’t. This was a surprising nomination, and surprise nomination doesn’t lead to Oscar wins.

A Serious Man – Joel & Ethan Coen
Odds: 15-1
For Them: The Coens are loved by the Academy. They have already won two screenwriting Oscars for Fargo and No Country for Old Men, and A Serious Man is a brilliant little screenplay by the brothers. The film did sneak into the best picture lineup.
Against Them: This is just not the Coen’s year. They won just two years ago for No Country, so the Academy is going to look to spread the wealth a little bit.

Up – Pete Docter & Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy
Odds: 10-1
For Them: Pixar has become somewhat of a perennial nominee in this category – with Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E and now this one all getting nominated. Yet they have never won the prize – some will say their time has come. This is the first of that batch to break into the Best Picture lineup.
Against Them: The fact that they have never won proves that the Academy still looks down at animation for wins in major categories. I think the other films would have snuck into a 10 strong best picture lineup as well – and Up would not have been nominated in a five wide field.

Who Will Win: It comes down to Boal vs. Tarantino, but I think the Academy will want to give it to Quentin to reward him for both writing and directing one of their favorite films of the year.

Who Should Win: Tarantino’s screenplay is the best written, most complex, and most quotable of the year. Need I say more?

Least of the Nominees: This is actually a strong field – with five great nominations, so I really don’t want to pick one. But if I had to, I’d say The Messenger is just a notch below the work of the other four.

Oscar Predictions: The Other Best Pictures

Today, we look at the “other” picture categories – Foreign Language, Animated, Documentary, Documentary Short, Animated Short and Live Action Short. The shorts in particular can give you a leg up on those Oscar pools, as many people just blind guess what will win.

Best Animated Feature Film
Coraline
Odds: 10-1
For It: A surprise hit early in the year, the film was able to stave off a lot of competition for movies that made a lot more money, and came out later in the year. It has been mentioned on a lot of critic’s lists, and has even surprised the frontrunners with a couple of victories of its own. Director Henry Selick has been working for years in this field, and has yet to win an Oscar.
Against It: It really has been the third man in terms of all the animated awards this year – trailing behind Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox, which were both bigger critical hits than Coraline. Even if Coraline did make a good chunk of money at the beginning of the year, it is dwarfed by Up, who as the only film is this category also up for best picture, is really running away with this one.

Fantastic Mr. Fox
Odds: 5-1
For It: A huge critical hit this fall. Directed by Wes Anderson, who has been nominated by the Academy in the past, although never here, giving this film the award would be a way of giving a hip, younger filmmaker an Oscar, without having to give him one of the more major awards.
Against It: No matter how loved by the critics the film was, it didn’t do well at the box office, as families were put off by Anderson’s idiosyncrasies. Some will love it, but not as many as those who love Up, who as the only film here also in best picture, has to be seen as the frontrunner.

The Princess and the Frog
Odds: 15-1
For It: Disney animation is loved by the Academy, and yet since this award only started at the beginning of the decade, none of the Disney classics have ever won this award. Giving it the Oscar would be a nice welcome back to them.
Against It: Although the critics liked the film, they didn’t love it. And audiences felt the same way, as the film barely squeaking by the $100 million mark is slightly disappointing. The film, although good, is in no way equal to Disney’s best films of the past.

The Secret of Kells
Odds: 20-1
For It: A surprise nominee (I would argue the biggest surprise of nomination day), the film is obviously well loved by those who have seen it, since it was able to get in with almost no fanfare, and no real release for the film. Those tired of computer animation, but who don’t want to embrace Disney, could wind up here.
Against It: The challenge will be to get enough people to actually watch the film, as it does work on the honor system. Considering Up got in for best picture, I have to wonder how many people will even bother to stick this one in the DVD player before filling out their ballot. Surprise nominees, with no box office to speak of, never really win.

Up
Odds: Even
For It: The film became only the second animated film in history to score a Best Picture nomination, which marks this as the definite frontrunner here. Pixar is beloved by the Academy – winning this award for Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille and Wall-E. This would make it a nice round 5.
Against It: Perhaps some are getting sick of Pixar winning this every year, and will look somewhere else. The film only did get into best picture because there were 10 slots, not because it is more beloved than the other Pixar films.

Will Win: I think Up has this one locked up, as it is both the critical and commercial champ of this bunch – and that Best Picture nominations pretty much makes that assured.

Should Win: I am torn here, as I loved Up almost as much as my favorite Pixar movies, while at the same time, was completely enamored by Anderson’s charming Fox. I’d give the edge to Up, but not by much.

Least of the Nominees: I hate to pick on the little guy here, and rain on a feel good story, but I don’t really think The Secret of Kells, which is a charmingly old fashioned movie, is quite as good as the others.

Documentary (Feature)
Burma VJ
Odds: 10-1
For It: A remarkable film made up almost entirely of footage captured by undercover reporters shooting the protests in Burma against the repressive government. The footage is amazing, and the only way we would get to know what is happening the country. The film is surprising inspiring as well.
Against It: Not a typical documentary in the way the Academy likes – that is talking heads combined with archive footage. I cannot think of another recent documentary in this vein that was able to pull off a win here.

The Cove
Odds: 2-1
For It: Undoubtedly the most talked about documentary of the year, The Cove has left audiences shaken every since its premiere at Sundance last January. It’s a powerful and exciting movie, about exposing the truth behind the dolphin slaughter in Japan, and its politics are in the right place for the Academy.
Against It: Despite having more ink devoted to it than any doc of the year, it didn’t really translate into mass commercial success – as the film grossed under $1 million (which still does place it second). It could be too tough to watch for some members.

Food, Inc.
Odds: 5-1
For It: The highest grossing doc nominated by a mile, Food Inc. exposes the corruption involved in our food production, and how giant corporations are ruining the food we eat, and making us fat in order to make money. Audience hits for docs are rare, and although this is nowhere near the scale of even An Inconvenient Truth, it’s closer than anything else nominated.
Against It: If you had done any sort of reading about this issue before watching the documentary, then nothing here came as much of a surprise. Despite raking up a number of high profile nominations this awards season, it never really did WIN anything.

The Most Dangerous Man in America
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie about a CIA agent who places his morality over his job, and works to expose the secrets of the Vietnam era will likely strike a chord with old fashioned liberals in the Academy.
Against It: The film has been barely been released, and no one is really talking about it that much. The Vietnam War was 40 years ago now, so they may want to give the award to something more timely.

Which Way Home
Odds: 6-1
For It: An inspiring, heartbreaking story about children from South America who try and make the journey by themselves into America to make a better life for themselves. The filmmakers get the story right from the mouths of the kids as they make the journey – and their stories are tragic, but the kids are tremendously sympathetic.
Against It: I hate to say it, but with the economy in the crapper, and two wars still waging on, illegal immigration kind of feels like yesterday’s news (right, Lou Dobbs?). The film does not have the devastating impact of The Cove, and the fact the film has not really had a theatrical release will hurt it.

Who Will Win: The Cove I think should hold onto the award it’s been the frontrunner for all year.

Who Should Win: Personally, I think that this was a weak year for docs, but they pretty much picked the best of the bunch. I’ll go with The Cove, although I quite liked Burma VJ and The Most Dangerous Man in America as well.

Least of the Nominees: For me, while I thought Which Way Home tried very hard - and was an honorable effort, it ranks just a notch below the others.

Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami (Israel)
Odds: 10-1
For It: Not to sound crass or anything, but there are a lot of Jewish people in the Academy, so a film from Israel could be what they are looking for here. This is the third nomination in row from that country (following Beaufort and Waltz with Bashir) and the 9th overall, and yet they have never won. Those who have seen it have a lot of nice things to say about it.
Against It: The film doesn’t have the buzz around it that some of the others films have, and while it is doing respectable business in limited release; it really hasn’t not ignited too many critical praise. It apparently contains quite a bit of violence, which is off putting to some in Academy.

The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Odds: 20-1
For It: To some, this has been the year of female directors, and Peru’s entry in this race is the only one directed by a woman. Its story of the effects of sexual violence through the generation could certainly touch many women in the Academy.
Against It: It still doesn’t have a North American distribution deal in place. It is a film heavy on symbolism, and light on plot and that usually does not go over well with the Academy. Peru has never even been nominated before this year, let alone won.

A Prophet (France)
Odds: 4-1
For It: One of the most talked films of all of 2009, the film has garnered constant praise and awards since its debut at Cannes where it won the Grand Prize of the Jury. The film is a dizzying, violent 2 and half hour prison drama, with political overtures. It is also far and away the most entertaining film of the bunch. France has a good track record of winning this award.
Against It: Could it be too violent for the more conservative Academy members? By holding off releasing the film until 2010, the North America distributer cost itself some buzz, and awards, that the film would have won had it been released earlier.

The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
Odds: 6-1
For It: Probably the closest thing we have to a film in the competition that feels like an American film, just with another language spoken instead of English. A well made thriller, stretching over 25 years, the film is well made, well acted and has a shocking ending. Although the film doesn’t have the buzz of the two frontrunners that often doesn’t matter to the Academy (just look at last year’s winner).
Against It: But buzz does help a film and this one so far doesn’t have much. It will be released theatrically later this year, but by not doing it sooner, the film has cost itself some free publicity. A good thriller, but does it carry the thematic weight the Academy likes to see?

The White Ribbon (Germany)
Odds: 3-1
For It: Michael Haneke is one of the most talked about filmmakers in the world, and The White Ribbon has garnered praise and awards all year, since it won the top prize (beating A Prophet) at the Cannes film festival earlier this year. The film isn’t as shocking violent as some of Haneke’s past works, and really does feel like a classic, with its black and white photography, and thematic weight.
Against It: It could be too slow moving for many in the Academy, who like films that are more easily understood. It could frustrate people who want everything wrapped up in a nice, neat little package by the end of the movie – something Haneke refuses to do in all of his films.

Who Will Win: It’s tough to call, since Academy members need to prove they have seen all five films at an Academy screening, and request a separate ballot, meaning that far few than 6,000 votes are cast. I’ll go with The White Ribbon, but I could easily see A Prophet pulling off a minor upset, or The Secret of Their Eyes pulling off a major one.

Should Win: Both The White Ribbon and A Prophet are masterpieces – two of the very best films of the year, and better than almost anything in the Best Picture category. I go back and forth on this one every day. At the moment though, I’m going with A Prophet.

Least of the Nominees: Since I have not seen Ajami, I cannot really say. But I really didn’t like The Milk of Sorrow, which didn’t ever come together for me as movie.

Documentary (Short Subject)
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Odds: 3-1
For It: This is the only movie I have seen out there actually try to promote itself for the win – positioning it as a David vs. Goliath story as the Chinese government has been trying to stop the film from screening, and bad mouthing it non-stop. And although this may be crass to say, it doesn’t hurt the film that it is about the after effects of an earthquake, which is very much on everybody’s mind with Haiti.
Against It: The film itself was, to me anyway, only marginal. Yes, it is an emotional story about grieving parents reaching out to their government for answers. But it established its basic setup early, and then had nowhere to build to. The overall effect was a little lacking for me.

The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Odds: 7-1
For It: Since I haven’t had a chance to see this one, I’m not really sure. It sounds like an emotional story about a former politician, Booth Gardner, coming out in support of the assisted suicide legislation in Washington State. It could strike a chord with some.
Against It: The issue of assisted suicide is still extremely divisive – even among good liberals like Academy members. The subject matter could be off putting – and the few reviews I have seen have not been overly great.

The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Odds: 4-1
For It: This is certainly the most immediately relevant movie to Americans nominated in this category. The movie follows a group of workers during the final weeks and days leading up to the closing on the GM plant, which is the backbone of their hometown. With so many closures coming down around the country, this is definitely relevant.
Against It: But will it strike a chord with Oscar voters? Like China’s Unnatural Disaster, to me this film started off strong, and then didn’t go very far with its actual premise. Yes, the movie is emotional, but will the loss of the jobs of blue collar workers really appeal to Oscar members?

Music by Prudence
Odds: 6-1
For It: They have gone for inspirational documentaries before in this category (just last year for example), and from the sounds of it, this story about Zimbabwe singer Prudence Mabhena certainly qualifies as that.
Against It: I have heard very little about this film from anyone. One thinks that they may simply be happy with the nomination. Is HBO going to support this over their other films in the competition?

Rabbit à la Berlin
Odds: 5-1
For It: This one sounds like a can’t miss, strange little film. It is the untold story of rabbits who literally lived between the Berlin Walls for all the years they were up. It was the safest place for them. If the film captures some sort of weird Watership Down, or March of the Penguins, feel, it could surprise.
Against It: It has not been widely seen here from what I understand (I certainly couldn’t find it). And really a documentary about bunnies? I don’t see it.

What Will Win: More often than not, this is a crapshoot, where you simply have to guess. My guess is China’s Unnatural Disaster, because they actually appear to want it, and it will strike a chord.

What Should Win: Since I’ve only seen two of the nominees this is impossible to say. Out of the two, I prefer The Last Truck – but not by much.

Least of the Nominees: Again, since I’ve only had the chance to see two of the nominees (why they don’t do what the other shorts do and make themselves available for download on iTunes I have no idea). Out of the two I have seen, I liked China’s Unnatural Disaster just a little bit less.

Short Film (Animated)
French Roast
Odds: 10-1
For It: This is a delightful and funny little movie about the difference between the rich and the poor. It is cleverly animated, and has a sweet, if ultimately predictable, conclusion.
Against It: I think there are other films in this vein nominated this year that do things better than this one. Out of all of the nominees, this was the least surprising of them all.

Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
Odds: 5-1
For It: An utterly hilarious litter movie about an old Irish grandmother telling her grandson the story of sleeping beauty, with her own demented take on it. It should appeal to the older Academy members, who may relate to Granny O’Grimm a little more than they want to admit. The movie is hilarious right through the end credits.
Against It: The shortest of the nominees at just six minutes, the movie runs the risk of not having the same weight or remembrance factor of the other nominees.

The Lady and the Reaper
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie is fast moving and fun, as the Grim Reaper and a handsome doctor fight for the life of an old woman. It has the feel of one of those old fashioned cartoons like Bugs Bunny.
Against It: Which is a problem, because it definitely has a been there, done that feel to it. It also repeats itself, and at just 8 minutes long, that is never a good sign.

Logorama
Odds: 4-1
For It: The most original film of the bunch, this one uses all corporate logos and mascots to tell it’s violent little crime drama, which is hilarious, well animated, original and at the same time it has a point to make about our modern society – something that really cannot be said about the other nominees.
Against It: But it is very violent for an animated movie (although it is cartoon violence), and it also contains a hell of a lot of swearing. These two factors could turn off a lot of older voters – who maybe the only ones who actually vote for this award.

A Matter of Loaf and Death
Odds: 3-1
For It: The sixth outing for Wallace and Gromit, four of the other outings have been nominated for an Oscar, and three of the them have won, so the Academy obviously loves these two characters. The movie is fun and funny, with loving homages to all sorts of classic movies. The longest nominee, at nearly 30 minutes, it will undoubtedly be remembered by the Academy.
Against It: Perhaps the fact that three of the other films have already won director Nick Park an Oscar will make the voters go for something else. After all, they moved these two to features last time and won, so going back to shorts seems like a step backwards.

Who Will Win: I think that Wallace and Gromit will capture their fourth Oscar this time out, but they do face some stiff competition.

Who Should Win: I thought Logorama was far and away the most original, daring and entertaining film of the bunch.

Least of the Nominees: The Lady and the Reaper just didn’t rise to the same level as the rest of these did. I am a little confused why the Academy overlooked Pixar’s delightful Partly Cloudy, which while is far from their best short, is still better than this one.

Short Film (Live Action)
The Door
Odds: 3-1
For It: If, unlike me, you were not able to guess the finale of this movie from early on, I imagine that the film would pack an emotional wallop. It certainly does try very hard to tug on your heartstrings. It is also a well made and well acted little movie.
Against It: Personally, I found the film frustrating, as it tried so hard to keep its rather obvious secrets.

Instead of Abracadabra
Odds: 5-1
For It: An enjoyable, light comedy – something the other nominees are not – this film will likely leave most people smiling, as it is an enjoyable little farce.
Against It: It could be seen as too lightweight by the Academy, who likes their winners – even in this category – to carry a little more weight.

Kavi
Odds: 6-1
For It: Like The Door, this one tries very hard to tug at your heartstrings, and could very well succeed for some viewers. Again, like The Door, it is the only film that seems to be about something “important”.
Against It: The Door is a better film overall, so people looking for something weighty and dramatic, will most likely go there.

Miracle Fish
Odds: 7-1
For It: A great short film, short on story, but long on mood and tone, with a rug pulling ending that actually works quite well.
Against It: They don’t like movies more about tone than story.

The New Tenants
Odds: 4-1
For It: Recognizable actors in a wonderful black comedy where the bodies keep piling up. Six Shooter won this award a few years ago, so they obviously don’t mind blood and swearing.
Against It: But there is a lot of both, which will put off some members. As will the surrealistic ending. As promising as he is, the director is no Martin McDonagh.

Who Will Win: The Door is emotional AND has an “important” subject matter. I think it takes it.

Who Should Win: Miracle Fish was far and away my favorite.

Least of the Nominees: I wasn’t a fan of either The Door or Kavi, but I think The Door is a much better made film, so I’ll say Kavi.